Discussion:
Why don't more Young Eagles become pilots?
(too old to reply)
Mxsmanic
2010-06-30 19:28:21 UTC
Permalink
A continuation rate of 0.26%--not very encouraging. An interesting article:

http://www.flyingmag.com/blogs/flying-lessons/why-dont-more-young-eagles-become-pilots
Mike Ash
2010-06-30 20:51:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
http://www.flyingmag.com/blogs/flying-lessons/why-dont-more-young-eagles-becom
e-pilots
As a teen student who gave up on lessons before getting my rating (and
took up gliders about 10 years later, with great success), it seems to
me that targeting teenagers is mostly not a good move.

I don't claim to be representative, but here's my abbreviated story.

I took my intro ride when I was 11 or 12. Continued lessons on a mostly
regular but somewhat infrequent (generally once a month) basis. Soloed
at 16, and then not long after I quit.

Looking back, I think the main reason I quit was that it was an
incredible amount of responsibility that I wasn't really ready for at
the time, and the rewards just weren't enough. This produced a lot of
anxiety. I remember that I really liked flying, but on my way to each
lesson I'd get anxious and worried and partially hope that the weather
would be too poor to fly.

When I was about 13 we moved, and the nearest place to get instruction
was a class D airport. Like a lot of teenagers, I didn't like public
speaking and thus had a lot of trouble with the radio. Having to
interact with the tower didn't help matters.

And then there was the money. While we could afford it, it was a lot of
money, and the expense kept me from being able to fly more frequently.

Compensating for all of this... well, I could fly. That was neat! But
not a huge practical value. Driving a car involved responsibility and
expense too (although less of each), but also came with tremendous
rewards in terms of being able to go to stores, restaurants, movie
theaters, friends' houses, etc. Flying, I could... travel places where I
could also drive.

Fast forward about ten years and I check out glider flying. After living
as an independent adult for a decade, the responsibility factor was no
big deal. Radio anxiety was gone. Money was not even remotely a problem.
And I had a lot more time on my hands, so the appeal was greater, and
the ability to take more intensive instruction was greater. Furthermore,
I was Just Another Guy in a great group of guys in my club with whom I
get along great, instead of being the Young Kid in a FBO with a few
strange folk. The sense of community helped a lot.

I think that giving rids to teens is a great idea, BUT you shouldn't
expect a high continuation rate at all. Your goal should be to plant a
seed which can sprout years later, when that teen has turned into an
independent adult with means and time and is starting to look into
expanding their activities.

Worked for me, anyway....
--
Mike Ash
Radio Free Earth
Broadcasting from our climate-controlled studios deep inside the Moon
Jim Logajan
2010-06-30 21:43:37 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
http://www.flyingmag.com/blogs/flying-lessons/why-dont-more-young-eagle
s-become-pilots
The 4 out of 1500 (~0.27%) value concerns a "free" Sporty's Pilot Shop
ground school program. In fact the number only includes those who
eventually passed a written exam. The number who took the exams and failed
isn't mentioned.

There is no reason to believe that that number correlates with the fraction
of Young Eagle participants that eventually earn a pilot license.

That said, if those ~0.27% go on to become pilots, it would be comparable
to, but slightly better than, the fraction of the U.S. population that are
certificated pilots (~600,000/~300,000,000 =~ 0.2%)

Bottom line appears to be that the Young Eagles program probably doesn't
accomplish anything useful re increasing pilot population. People who want
to be pilots will do what they can to reach that goal - the rest presumably
just enjoy the chance for a free airplane ride.
Mxsmanic
2010-06-30 22:26:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jim Logajan
Bottom line appears to be that the Young Eagles program probably doesn't
accomplish anything useful re increasing pilot population. People who want
to be pilots will do what they can to reach that goal - the rest presumably
just enjoy the chance for a free airplane ride.
I've seen figures on multiple occasions that indicate that the largest group
of private pilots (i.e., not flying as a career) consists of men in their late
forties. Perhaps efforts should not be wasted on adolescents who might or
might not be interested in aviation, and programs should target middle-aged
men who might have fewer distractions, more money, and more developed and
focused interests. I don't see any reason why people have to start flying
young in order to enjoy it.

Cirrus follows this philosophy to a certain extent by strongly targeting
wealthy, low-time private pilots in their marketing, which I suspect also
specifically aims for a male demographic. Multiple characteristics of their
marketing efforts suggest this. Unfortunately it produces high accident rates,
since a desire for rich Corinthian leather in the seats for purposes of
bragging rights doesn't correlate at all with piloting skill.
Jim Logajan
2010-06-30 23:14:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
Post by Jim Logajan
Bottom line appears to be that the Young Eagles program probably
doesn't accomplish anything useful re increasing pilot population.
People who want to be pilots will do what they can to reach that goal
- the rest presumably just enjoy the chance for a free airplane ride.
I've seen figures on multiple occasions that indicate that the largest
group of private pilots (i.e., not flying as a career) consists of men
in their late forties. Perhaps efforts should not be wasted on
adolescents who might or might not be interested in aviation, and
programs should target middle-aged men who might have fewer
distractions, more money, and more developed and focused interests. I
don't see any reason why people have to start flying young in order to
enjoy it.
I would tend to agree that a "Bald Eagle" or "Old Flying Geezer" program
would likely yield greater returns. We geezers over 40 have a tiny bit
more time and money than young whippersnappers - and the realization our
days remaining on this mortal coil are dwindling. If EAA and AOPA and the
like would stop preaching to the proverbial choir, and advertise instead
in the same places, say, that RV makers do, they might see better return
on their time and investment.
Post by Mxsmanic
Cirrus follows this philosophy to a certain extent by strongly
targeting wealthy, low-time private pilots in their marketing, which I
suspect also specifically aims for a male demographic. Multiple
characteristics of their marketing efforts suggest this. Unfortunately
it produces high accident rates, since a desire for rich Corinthian
leather in the seats for purposes of bragging rights doesn't correlate
at all with piloting skill.
That's easy for you to say, but - alas - the above paragraph was easy to
write because it is entirely opinion (on Cirrus marketing,) speculation
(on causal connection between accident rate and shallow desires,) and
unsupported factual claim (high accident rate.)

So what is the accident rate? There have been several attempts to assess
Cirrus accident rates and compare them to comparable aircraft. The
problem is that while Cirrus provides estimates for their fleet hours,
the following article claims that other manufacturers such as Cessna do
not provide any such numbers:

http://www.cirruspilots.org/content/SafetyHowSafeIsACirrus.aspx

According to that article the Cirrus models exhibit 1.42 to 1.76 fatal
accidents per 100,000 hours (depending on the time period selected - the
lower number was from a later period.) But the GA single engine fleet
exhibits about 1.86 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours.

So the factual assumption underlying your paragraph appears entirely
invalid unless you can demonstrate otherwise.

Lastly, it is interesting to note that the article indicates that members
of the Cirrus Owners and Pilots Association have dramatically fewer
normalized accident rates than non-members.
Mxsmanic
2010-07-01 01:12:18 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jim Logajan
According to that article the Cirrus models exhibit 1.42 to 1.76 fatal
accidents per 100,000 hours (depending on the time period selected - the
lower number was from a later period.) But the GA single engine fleet
exhibits about 1.86 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours.
Some quick research turns up numerous other sources that make the opposite
claim, i.e., that Cirrus aircraft have significantly more accidents than other
aircraft. One claims that Cirrus has more than three times the number of
fatalities as Cessna with reference to hours flown.
Post by Jim Logajan
Lastly, it is interesting to note that the article indicates that members
of the Cirrus Owners and Pilots Association have dramatically fewer
normalized accident rates than non-members.
Well, the article certainly wouldn't say that they have dramatically more,
would it?

I don't have reason to believe that Cirrus builds unsafe aircraft, but I feel
strongly that its very aggressive marketing to certain demographic profiles
encourages people to buy and fly these aircraft who in fact shouldn't be going
near them or any other aircraft.
Jim Logajan
2010-07-01 02:06:27 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
Some quick research turns up numerous other sources that make the
opposite claim, i.e., that Cirrus aircraft have significantly more
accidents than other aircraft. One claims that Cirrus has more than
three times the number of fatalities as Cessna with reference to hours
flown.
If you could provide a bibliographic reference or URL to that claim it
would be appreciated.
a***@gmail.com
2010-07-01 12:01:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jim Logajan
Post by Mxsmanic
Some quick research turns up numerous other sources that make the
opposite claim, i.e., that Cirrus aircraft have significantly more
accidents than other aircraft. One claims that Cirrus has more than
three times the number of fatalities as Cessna with reference to hours
flown.
If you could provide a bibliographic reference or URL to that claim it
would be appreciated.
He won't..... Never does provide references.....
a
2010-07-01 02:22:43 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
Post by Jim Logajan
According to that article the Cirrus models exhibit 1.42 to 1.76 fatal
accidents per 100,000 hours (depending on the time period selected - the
lower number was from a later period.) But the GA single engine fleet
exhibits about 1.86 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours.
Some quick research turns up numerous other sources that make the opposite
claim, i.e., that Cirrus aircraft have significantly more accidents than other
aircraft. One claims that Cirrus has more than three times the number of
fatalities as Cessna with reference to hours flown.
Post by Jim Logajan
Lastly, it is interesting to note that the article indicates that members
of the Cirrus Owners and Pilots Association have dramatically fewer
normalized accident rates than non-members.
Well, the article certainly wouldn't say that they have dramatically more,
would it?
I don't have reason to believe that Cirrus builds unsafe aircraft, but I feel
strongly that its very aggressive marketing to certain demographic profiles
encourages people to buy and fly these aircraft who in fact shouldn't be going
near them or any other aircraft.
It'd my admittedly uninformed opinion that research would demonstrate
the performance characteristics of this airplane are more like those
of a complex high performance single than a Pa 140 and pilots need
more training than a simple sign off.
Mxsmanic
2010-07-01 11:20:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by a
It'd my admittedly uninformed opinion that research would demonstrate
the performance characteristics of this airplane are more like those
of a complex high performance single than a Pa 140 and pilots need
more training than a simple sign off.
It has a reputation for good performance in its class. I don't think that
would explain so many pilots messing up, though. I think Cirrus is
deliberately marketing to pilots who probably shouldn't be flying the
airplane, which I consider unethical.

Cory Lidle isn't necessarily a typical example in all ways, but his accident
illustrates my concern and the type of pilot whom I believe Cirrus is trying
inappropriately to attract.
Jim Logajan
2010-06-30 23:25:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
Cirrus follows this philosophy to a certain extent by strongly
targeting wealthy, low-time private pilots in their marketing,
Further note:
According to the section labeled "Lesson 5" on the following web page,
statistics indicate that "low-time" pilots are not the ones who are
experiencing accidents in Cirrus aircraft:

http://www.cirruspilots.org/content/Safetylessonslearned.aspx
Mxsmanic
2010-07-01 00:53:33 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jim Logajan
According to the section labeled "Lesson 5" on the following web page,
statistics indicate that "low-time" pilots are not the ones who are
http://www.cirruspilots.org/content/Safetylessonslearned.aspx
I have to question the objectivity of a pilot's association dedicated to the
manufacturer's aircraft. Especially when I see statements like "... the
ultimate safety device: CAPS." That's exactly the kind of attitude that can
cause accidents. The author seems to further believe that CAPS is a fix for
all sorts of situations, such as pilot disorientation and loss of control at
low altitude.

These statements do not reassure me. It sounds eerily like pilots who believe
that a GPS will perfectly and perpetually solve all their navigation issues
forever.
a***@gmail.com
2010-07-01 01:39:25 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
These statements do not reassure me. It sounds eerily like pilots who believe
that a GPS will perfectly and perpetually solve all their navigation issues
forever.
Since you don't fly a real plane, why do you even care what REAL
pilots believe?

Real pilots much rather go straight lines to make more efficient time
in their flight, but you have no clue what it's like navigating in the
REAL world. IF YOU DID KNOW WHAT IT'S LIKE TO NAVIGATE IN THE REAL
WORLD, YOU WOULD NOT SAY SUCH AN INCOMPETENT STATEMENT LIKE THE ABOVE.
Jim Logajan
2010-07-01 02:59:28 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
Post by Jim Logajan
According to the section labeled "Lesson 5" on the following web
page, statistics indicate that "low-time" pilots are not the ones who
http://www.cirruspilots.org/content/Safetylessonslearned.aspx
I have to question the objectivity of a pilot's association dedicated
to the manufacturer's aircraft.
Objectivity of such an organization should be considered, but questioning
per se isn't an indictment or conviction of wrongful analysis or fact
cherry picking. One needs to point out the false factual claims or flawed
logic.
Post by Mxsmanic
Especially when I see statements like
"... the ultimate safety device: CAPS." That's exactly the kind of
attitude that can cause accidents. The author seems to further believe
that CAPS is a fix for all sorts of situations, such as pilot
disorientation and loss of control at low altitude.
Taken in the context of the entire article, the author appears to be
using the word "ultimate" in its "final" or "last" meanings. When CAPS is
deployed it pretty much _is_ the ultimate or final safety action a pilot
can take - after which she becomes (hopefully) a passive floating object.

I would agree with him and disagree with you that CAPS is one possible
resolution to pilot disorientation and loss of control at low altitude.
He doesn't say use of CAPS is certain to succeed in either case - merely
that timely deployment has a good chance of working.

As to low altitude loss of control: consider a stall/spin on a turn from
base to final at 500 ft. Assuming the aircraft immediately (and
unrealistically) accelerated to 5000 ft/min (~84 ft/sec) and the
deployment had to occur above 200 ft AGL to succeed, the pilot or
passenger would have about 3.5 seconds to act. Not much but certainly
plausible. But the average descent rate is likely to be half that or
less, so more like 7 seconds to react.

I haven't tried it, but you could do an experiment and force a spin or
stall on final on a normal landing on MS flight simulator and time how
long it takes to hit the ground (or pass 200 ft AGL.) I'd be interested
in your results.
Post by Mxsmanic
These statements do not reassure me. It sounds eerily like pilots who
believe that a GPS will perfectly and perpetually solve all their
navigation issues forever.
And yet the organization claims that the accident statistics of its
members is much lower than single engine GA in general.
Mxsmanic
2010-07-01 11:18:30 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jim Logajan
Objectivity of such an organization should be considered, but questioning
per se isn't an indictment or conviction of wrongful analysis or fact
cherry picking. One needs to point out the false factual claims or flawed
logic.
In this case, there's too much that's subjective about the judgment to prove
anything either way. From what I've seen, it looks like Cirrus has more
accidents than it should, and it seems that many Cirrus pilots are different
from average in lack of experience, lack of caution, or in other ways that
make them particularly prone to pilot error. However, the numbers can be
cooked and recooked to "prove" almost anything.

Even without looking at pilots, one need only look at Cirrus' marketing
strategy to be able to predict that it's going to attract the wrong kind of
people to flying their aircraft.

It's a bit like the flying car I just posted a link about in another new
thread. However, the flying car is unlikely to ever become any kind of
practicable reality, so there's no risk associated with the hype being built
around it.
Post by Jim Logajan
Taken in the context of the entire article, the author appears to be
using the word "ultimate" in its "final" or "last" meanings. When CAPS is
deployed it pretty much _is_ the ultimate or final safety action a pilot
can take - after which she becomes (hopefully) a passive floating object.
I read yesterday that the descent rate of a Cirrus with the parachute deployed
is around 1700 fpm, far more than a competent pilot could manage by actually
flying the aircraft. And the maximum speed for deployment is 133 knots.

The parachute was originally installed to get past the fact that Cirrus
aircraft behave very poorly in spins. Cirrus marketing turned a liability into
an (apparent) asset, which is quite an accomplishment, but not one that I
think serves the public interest.
Post by Jim Logajan
I haven't tried it, but you could do an experiment and force a spin or
stall on final on a normal landing on MS flight simulator and time how
long it takes to hit the ground (or pass 200 ft AGL.) I'd be interested
in your results.
I don't have a Cirrus, although Eaglesoft supposedly makes a nice one that
I've been thinking about (when I have the budget). Since the Cirrus simulation
would essentially be a simulation of two PC screens on another PC screen, I
have some doubts--it's hard to simulate all-in-one glass panels accurately,
unless one has access to the original source code or a great deal of time to
work on it.

MSFS also is not tops at simulating unusual flight regimes, given its
table-based design. I do note that Carenado's Cessnas seem to behave in a spin
just as the real aircraft supposedly behave, or at least they are difficult to
spin and easy to recover.
Post by Jim Logajan
And yet the organization claims that the accident statistics of its
members is much lower than single engine GA in general.
That's what I would expect them to claim. It's hard to imagine that they are
completely unbiased. Other sources I've visited point out how the numbers can
be cooked.

In general, I am suspicious of companies that spend too much on marketing.
Cessna has been guilty of that a bit in the past and perhaps even today.
Beechcraft seems to be much more conservative. It seems that the high end
often spends money on quality and then lets the product speak for itself,
whereas the low end spends a lot more on marketing to conceal the shortcomings
of a product (not just in aviation, of course).
Mike Ash
2010-07-01 15:34:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
I read yesterday that the descent rate of a Cirrus with the parachute deployed
is around 1700 fpm, far more than a competent pilot could manage by actually
flying the aircraft. And the maximum speed for deployment is 133 knots.
Can any real pilots who know something about the Cirrus comment on that
1700fpm figure? It seems completely outlandish to me that you wouldn't
be able to exceed 1700fpm in flight, but powered aircraft in general and
the Cirrus in particular aren't exactly my area of expertise.
--
Mike Ash
Radio Free Earth
Broadcasting from our climate-controlled studios deep inside the Moon
Flaps_50!
2010-07-01 17:16:40 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mike Ash
Post by Mxsmanic
I read yesterday that the descent rate of a Cirrus with the parachute deployed
is around 1700 fpm, far more than a competent pilot could manage by actually
flying the aircraft. And the maximum speed for deployment is 133 knots.
Can any real pilots who know something about the Cirrus comment on that
1700fpm figure? It seems completely outlandish to me that you wouldn't
be able to exceed 1700fpm in flight, but powered aircraft in general and
the Cirrus in particular aren't exactly my area of expertise.
The Cirrus pilot doesn't know how to slip ?

Cheers
a***@gmail.com
2010-07-01 19:42:38 UTC
Permalink
Post by Flaps_50!
The Cirrus pilot doesn't know how to slip ?
Cheers
Nope, MX doesn't know how to slip.
Mxsmanic
2010-07-02 04:05:15 UTC
Permalink
Post by Flaps_50!
The Cirrus pilot doesn't know how to slip ?
The 1700-fpm is _with the parachute deployed_, and thus has nothing to do with
normal flight.
Mike Ash
2010-07-02 04:28:57 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
Post by Flaps_50!
The Cirrus pilot doesn't know how to slip ?
The 1700-fpm is _with the parachute deployed_, and thus has nothing to do with
normal flight.
You said:

"I read yesterday that the descent rate of a Cirrus with the parachute
deployed is around 1700 fpm, far more than a competent pilot could
manage by actually flying the aircraft."

In short, you directly said that a competent pilot flying the aircraft
could not come anywhere close to 1700fpm. This is blatantly wrong.

Go on, dodge, I know it's all you can do.
--
Mike Ash
Radio Free Earth
Broadcasting from our climate-controlled studios deep inside the Moon
Mxsmanic
2010-07-02 05:44:14 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mike Ash
"I read yesterday that the descent rate of a Cirrus with the parachute
deployed is around 1700 fpm, far more than a competent pilot could
manage by actually flying the aircraft."
In short, you directly said that a competent pilot flying the aircraft
could not come anywhere close to 1700fpm. This is blatantly wrong.
No, I said that 1700 fpm greatly exceeds what a pilot could limit the descent
rate to if he actually flew the aircraft. I thought that would be clear in
context. Why would the pilot want to hit the ground at greater than 1700 fpm?
Mike Ash
2010-07-02 14:32:02 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
Post by Mike Ash
"I read yesterday that the descent rate of a Cirrus with the parachute
deployed is around 1700 fpm, far more than a competent pilot could
manage by actually flying the aircraft."
In short, you directly said that a competent pilot flying the aircraft
could not come anywhere close to 1700fpm. This is blatantly wrong.
No, I said that 1700 fpm greatly exceeds what a pilot could limit the descent
rate to if he actually flew the aircraft. I thought that would be clear in
context. Why would the pilot want to hit the ground at greater than 1700 fpm?
It was not at all clear. You wouldn't want to hit the ground at greater
than that speed. There are many scenarios, however, where you would want
to descend at greater than that speed BEFORE arriving at the ground.
--
Mike Ash
Radio Free Earth
Broadcasting from our climate-controlled studios deep inside the Moon
Mxsmanic
2010-07-02 21:58:22 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mike Ash
It was not at all clear.
Sorry. If it wasn't at all clear, perhaps you should not have been so quick to
call it wrong.
Mike Ash
2010-07-02 23:27:01 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
Post by Mike Ash
It was not at all clear.
Sorry. If it wasn't at all clear, perhaps you should not have been so quick to
call it wrong.
Perhaps *I* wasn't clear. Your message had, as far as I could tell, one
single reasonable interpretation. It just happened that the meaning of
that single reasonable interpretation doesn't line up with what you
meant to say. Thus, it was unclear, but this was only evident after you
explained yourself.

Maybe YOU shouldn't be so quick to call ME out, huh? No wonder nobody
likes you....

Feel free to get in the last word now.
--
Mike Ash
Radio Free Earth
Broadcasting from our climate-controlled studios deep inside the Moon
Mxsmanic
2010-07-03 02:53:16 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mike Ash
Perhaps *I* wasn't clear. Your message had, as far as I could tell, one
single reasonable interpretation. It just happened that the meaning of
that single reasonable interpretation doesn't line up with what you
meant to say. Thus, it was unclear, but this was only evident after you
explained yourself.
But the standard of reasonableness was yours, not mine. Given the context, I
felt certain that it would be correctly interpretation, since the
interpretation you gave it would make no sense.

Peter Dohm
2010-07-02 19:04:11 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
Post by Mike Ash
"I read yesterday that the descent rate of a Cirrus with the parachute
deployed is around 1700 fpm, far more than a competent pilot could
manage by actually flying the aircraft."
In short, you directly said that a competent pilot flying the aircraft
could not come anywhere close to 1700fpm. This is blatantly wrong.
No, I said that 1700 fpm greatly exceeds what a pilot could limit the descent
rate to if he actually flew the aircraft. I thought that would be clear in
context. Why would the pilot want to hit the ground at greater than 1700 fpm?
Anthony,

I took the trouble to read back and, as you know, that is not exactly what
you said.

I really don't know the minimum power off descent rate of the cirrus,
windmilling or idling, and that by itself is not particularly usefull in the
successfull landing of either an aircraft or a simulator. You have known
that for a long time because the basic numbers and procedures are similar.
You also know the circumstance in which stabilization at minimum sink is
recommended as the best means to minimize the effect of a crash, because it
is just too frequently quoted and published for you to have missed.

You also know that the parachute was not added as a fix for a problem; but
was part of the original concept and was a reason that spin entry and
recovery were not part of the certification process. That subject has been
discussed ad nauseam here and elsewhere.

So my question to you is this: Whereas you have been doing this far too
long to be a grad student and you occasionally change your writing style so
that, for a few months at a time, your trolling is dramatically less
effective or more effective; who really are you, how many are you, and why?
a***@gmail.com
2010-07-01 19:07:56 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mike Ash
Post by Mxsmanic
I read yesterday that the descent rate of a Cirrus with the parachute deployed
is around 1700 fpm, far more than a competent pilot could manage by actually
flying the aircraft. And the maximum speed for deployment is 133 knots.
Can any real pilots who know something about the Cirrus comment on that
1700fpm figure? It seems completely outlandish to me that you wouldn't
be able to exceed 1700fpm in flight, but powered aircraft in general and
the Cirrus in particular aren't exactly my area of expertise.
As usual Mx talks with NO knowledge of flying a REAL airplane hence
his trolling continues. He is absolutely clueless.

I have FAR exceeded 2000 fpm descent rate (have a video of it on my
You Tube channel) practicing emergency descents in a Sundowner. I am
here to talk about it and it was completely controlled. Things happen
real fast and not for the faint of heart.

My research before trying 90 degree bank in a non acro plane can be
found at http://discussions.flightaware.com/viewtopic.php?p=87495#87495

My reaction after doing this emergency descent manuever can be found
at http://discussions.flightaware.com/viewtopic.php?p=87850#87850

The video itself can be seen at


No access to You Tube where I am at, sooooo going on memory, I
provided FARS references on legality of doing this manuevar as acro is
not defined by a degree of bank, but requirements for parachutes when
WITH passengers (I was solo - no parachute required) is defined by
degrees of bank.
Mike Ash
2010-07-01 22:15:15 UTC
Permalink
In article
Post by a***@gmail.com
Post by Mike Ash
Post by Mxsmanic
I read yesterday that the descent rate of a Cirrus with the parachute deployed
is around 1700 fpm, far more than a competent pilot could manage by actually
flying the aircraft. And the maximum speed for deployment is 133 knots.
Can any real pilots who know something about the Cirrus comment on that
1700fpm figure? It seems completely outlandish to me that you wouldn't
be able to exceed 1700fpm in flight, but powered aircraft in general and
the Cirrus in particular aren't exactly my area of expertise.
As usual Mx talks with NO knowledge of flying a REAL airplane hence
his trolling continues. He is absolutely clueless.
I have FAR exceeded 2000 fpm descent rate (have a video of it on my
You Tube channel) practicing emergency descents in a Sundowner. I am
here to talk about it and it was completely controlled. Things happen
real fast and not for the faint of heart.
That's what I figured....

Some quick calculations show that 1700fpm at 133kts is a roughly 8:1
glide ratio. It should not be particularly hard to create more than
1/8th of your weight in drag at that kind of speed in a Cirrus.
--
Mike Ash
Radio Free Earth
Broadcasting from our climate-controlled studios deep inside the Moon
Mxsmanic
2010-07-02 04:06:04 UTC
Permalink
Post by a***@gmail.com
I have FAR exceeded 2000 fpm descent rate (have a video of it on my
You Tube channel) practicing emergency descents in a Sundowner. I am
here to talk about it and it was completely controlled.
With a parachute deployed?
a***@gmail.com
2010-07-02 14:58:29 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
Post by a***@gmail.com
I have FAR exceeded 2000 fpm descent rate (have a video of it on my
You Tube channel) practicing emergency descents in a Sundowner.  I am
here to talk about it and it was completely controlled.
With a parachute deployed?
Nope, I said nothing about any parachute. READ WHAT I POSTED. I far
exceeded 2000 fpm descent rate as YOU SAID it was far more then a
competent pilot COULD MANAGE. Sure looks like YOU ARE WRONG AGAIN.
Let me refresh your memory on what you posted.
Post by Mxsmanic
Post by a***@gmail.com
"I read yesterday that the descent rate of a Cirrus with the parachute
deployed is around 1700 fpm, far more than a competent pilot could
manage by actually flying the aircraft."
Video sure proved YOU ARE CLUELESS as I had a DESCENT RATE exceeding
1700 fpm and I was actually flying the aircraft. HAND flying it at
that.
Peter Dohm
2010-07-01 15:20:20 UTC
Permalink
Several of you have said exactly the same things that I would have said in
both branches of this thread, have said before in previous threads, and (in
the case of the Young Eagles and Flying Start programs) have said in person
to all who'd listen and many who wouldn't.

My point is that y'all have been trolled again, and in the most classic
sense of internet trolling.

The only reason that I really felt compelled to write the above, which has
also been "done to death", is that this is an election year and we are all
going to see and hear a lot more statements and questions much like the ones
from our very own favorite local usenet troll--assertions that frequently
sound possible, but with poor or absent bibliographical data and unrelenting
demands that the opposition provide perfect bibliographies.

In my home state, we are more than midway through the primary campaigns for
governor, and I haven't heard many demands for proof of anything; but the
rest looks and sounds a lot like the worst threads in R.A.P and R.A.S.

As Yogi phrases it: "It's deja vu all over again."

Peter
Mike Ash
2010-07-01 15:33:09 UTC
Permalink
Post by Peter Dohm
Several of you have said exactly the same things that I would have said in
both branches of this thread, have said before in previous threads, and (in
the case of the Young Eagles and Flying Start programs) have said in person
to all who'd listen and many who wouldn't.
My point is that y'all have been trolled again, and in the most classic
sense of internet trolling.
Really? All I see here is a pretty reasonable and interesting discussion
about pilot training, outreach, and Cirrus aircraft safety.

Yes, the instigator of the discussion is a notorious troll. And yet,
he's managed to spawn a very good discussion. Very good discussions, I
will note, are extremely thin on the ground in this place right now.

Will it degenerate into a stupid troll-fest? Maybe. That's why I'm
avoiding a direct argument with the original poster, and why I think
others should too. But for now I don't care who started the discussion,
it's interesting.
--
Mike Ash
Radio Free Earth
Broadcasting from our climate-controlled studios deep inside the Moon
a
2010-07-01 22:32:45 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jim Logajan
Post by Mxsmanic
Post by Jim Logajan
According to the section labeled "Lesson 5" on the following web
page, statistics indicate that "low-time" pilots are not the ones who
http://www.cirruspilots.org/content/Safetylessonslearned.aspx
I have to question the objectivity of a pilot's association dedicated
to the manufacturer's aircraft.
Objectivity of such an organization should be considered, but questioning
per se isn't an indictment or conviction of wrongful analysis or fact
cherry picking. One needs to point out the false factual claims or flawed
logic.
Post by Mxsmanic
 Especially when I see statements like
"... the ultimate safety device: CAPS." That's exactly the kind of
attitude that can cause accidents. The author seems to further believe
that CAPS is a fix for all sorts of situations, such as pilot
disorientation and loss of control at low altitude.
Taken in the context of the entire article, the author appears to be
using the word "ultimate" in its "final" or "last" meanings. When CAPS is
deployed it pretty much _is_ the ultimate or final safety action a pilot
can take - after which she becomes (hopefully) a passive floating object.
I would agree with him and disagree with you that CAPS is one possible
resolution to pilot disorientation and loss of control at low altitude.
He doesn't say use of CAPS is certain to succeed in either case - merely
that timely deployment has a good chance of working.
As to low altitude loss of control: consider a stall/spin on a turn from
base to final at 500 ft. Assuming the aircraft immediately (and
unrealistically) accelerated to 5000 ft/min (~84 ft/sec) and the
deployment had to occur above 200 ft AGL to succeed, the pilot or
passenger would have about 3.5 seconds to act. Not much but certainly
plausible. But the average descent rate is likely to be half that or
less, so more like 7 seconds to react.
I haven't tried it, but you could do an experiment and force a spin or
stall on final on a normal landing on MS flight simulator and time how
long it takes to hit the ground (or pass 200 ft AGL.) I'd be interested
in your results.
Post by Mxsmanic
These statements do not reassure me. It sounds eerily like pilots who
believe that a GPS will perfectly and perpetually solve all their
navigation issues forever.
And yet the organization claims that the accident statistics of its
members is much lower than single engine GA in general.
There is some data that suggests there are more fatalities in a Cirrus
than a 172 when normalized for exposure (flight hours and the like)
although the more directly competing airplane in terms of performance
might be a 182 or a complex single. I have not seen data about that.
The CAPS manufacture cites the deployed device will provide a descent
rate of about 1600 fpm. Some point out a suitably configured sel might
go down at 800 fpm, but the different that might be more important is
the SEL will be flying at 50 or 70 MPH and that represents some energy
that has to be turned to heat.

Speaking of heat, someone may be able to reduce it and add light if
they have data on serious accidents among airplanes with similar
mission profiles -- my guess is the Cirrus mission might be more
nearly like an complex SEL than a 172.
Peter Dohm
2010-07-01 23:19:36 UTC
Permalink
"a" <***@gmail.com> wrote in message news:5a11ae18-99b4-4923-9cae-***@t10g2000yqg.googlegroups.com...

-----massive clip because my reader didn't properly update the
quotes----------

There is some data that suggests there are more fatalities in a Cirrus
than a 172 when normalized for exposure (flight hours and the like)
although the more directly competing airplane in terms of performance
might be a 182 or a complex single. I have not seen data about that.
The CAPS manufacture cites the deployed device will provide a descent
rate of about 1600 fpm. Some point out a suitably configured sel might
go down at 800 fpm, but the different that might be more important is
the SEL will be flying at 50 or 70 MPH and that represents some energy
that has to be turned to heat.

Speaking of heat, someone may be able to reduce it and add light if
they have data on serious accidents among airplanes with similar
mission profiles -- my guess is the Cirrus mission might be more
nearly like an complex SEL than a 172.

-----------begin new post-----------

IIRC, this subject came up and one of the contributors, possibly Ron,
provided some data which he had made a considerable effort to filter in a
usefull and not predjudicial way--and the difference in accident rates were
not sufficiently great, between the Cirrus and other high performance
singles, to be at all compelling--especially considering the small number of
accidents in any type of aircraft during a given period.

OTOH, my personal opinion is that a lot of it really comes down to the idea
of pilots reducing themselves to passengers, as though in the back of one of
those giant airline mailing tubes, simply riding along to the crash site
after irrevocably turning control over to a mechanical device--in this case,
the ballistic parachute. That's probably an acceptable concept for
bureaucrats and desktop simmers; but seems to richly deserve a little "push
back" from current and former fliers--from solo students to ATPs.
Personally, I thnk I'd rather be out under a "real" parachute and not forced
to crash flat on my fanny in the damned airplane...

Just my $0.02
Peter
j***@specsol.spam.sux.com
2010-07-01 22:01:10 UTC
Permalink
Post by Mxsmanic
Post by Jim Logajan
Bottom line appears to be that the Young Eagles program probably doesn't
accomplish anything useful re increasing pilot population. People who want
to be pilots will do what they can to reach that goal - the rest presumably
just enjoy the chance for a free airplane ride.
I've seen figures on multiple occasions that indicate that the largest group
of private pilots (i.e., not flying as a career) consists of men in their late
forties.
And after all your babble about "angry young men" in these groups...
--
Jim Pennino

Remove .spam.sux to reply.
Gene Seibel
2010-07-01 17:35:59 UTC
Permalink
Post by Jim Logajan
That said, if those ~0.27% go on to become pilots, it would be comparable
to, but slightly better than, the fraction of the U.S. population that are
certificated pilots (~600,000/~300,000,000 =~ 0.2%)
Actually 35% better.
--
Gene Seibel
Tales of flight - http://pad39a.com/gene/tales.html
Because we fly, we envy no one.
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